Won't Bitcoin fall in a deflationary spiral?
The deflationary spiral theory says that if prices are expected to fall,
people will move purchases into the future in order to benefit from the
lower prices. That fall in demand will in turn cause merchants to lower
their prices to try and stimulate demand, making the problem worse and
leading to an economic depression.
Although this theory is a popular way to justify inflation amongst
central bankers, it does not appear to always hold true and is
considered controversial amongst economists. Consumer electronics is one
example of a market where prices constantly fall but which is not in
depression. Similarly, the value of bitcoins has risen over time and yet
the size of the Bitcoin economy has also grown dramatically along with
it. Because both the value of the currency and the size of its economy
started at zero in 2009, Bitcoin is a counterexample to the theory
showing that it must sometimes be wrong.
Notwithstanding this, Bitcoin is not designed to be a deflationary
currency. It is more accurate to say Bitcoin is intended to inflate in
its early years, and become stable in its later years. The only time the
quantity of bitcoins in circulation will drop is if people carelessly
lose their wallets by failing to make backups. With a stable monetary
base and a stable economy, the value of the currency should remain the
same.
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